Sweet, sweet, fantasy baby

When it comes to drafting a fantasy football team, I tend to heed the advice of the Ghostbusters: don’t cross the streams. That is, the streams of fandom and fantasy fandom. I tend to shy away from drafting players from my favorite team to my fantasy squad for the simple reason that I already have so much invested in my squad’s success anyway and to add an extra layer of fantasy pressure to it is too much to bear.

Four scenarios exist for the fave team/fantasy team conundrum…

* The ‘Gozer Is Destroyed’ Scenario: You load your team up with your favorite team’s players, they all have big years, and you roll on to fantasy glory. This is the ideal overall situation, and one that’s rarely experienced by most fantasy football fans. The Steelers, for example, didn’t have any major fantasy producers last season aside from their defense, so any team in your office pool that had Roethlisberger, Ward or Parker as key contributors was more likely to be middle of the pack than at the top of the table. This might be worth examining more closely in another post, but it’s interesting to note that the last several Super Bowl winners haven’t had many huge fantasy stat-mongers. Of the last 10 NFL champions, only the 2006 Colts and the 1999 Rams had the sort of big offensive weapons that would’ve been high picks in any fantasy draft. So really, if you draft a lot of your favorite team’s players, you’re really jinxing your team. Way to turn the rest of the fanbase against you, Steve Bartman!

* The ‘Wheel Of Cheese’ Scenario: You load your team up with anyone BUT your favorite team’s players, and your fantasy team struggles while your favorite team has a great season. Not a bad scenario, really. Unless you’re in a league with a five-figure prize, I think most of us would rather see our favorite team hoist a Lombardi Trophy rather than see ourselves hoist a fantasy trophy generated from pixels. Imagine you’re a Saints fan and your fantasy squad gets destroyed at the hands of a team with Drew Brees at quarterback, who had a four-TD, 380-yard passing day. In the words of Ron Burgundy, you wouldn’t even be mad. That’s amazing.

* The ‘Homer Simpson/Lobster’ Scenario: You load your team up with anyone BUT your favorite team’s players, and you go on to fantasy glory while your favorite team struggles. Remember when Homer accidentally boils his pet lobster Pinchy, and then chokes back tears while happily eating him? That’s basically this situation here. It’s a mixed bag. As I mentioned, it’s a better communal experience to have your favorite team win a title than it is to experience a fantasy championship by yourself. But, look at it this way — if your team is going through a rough season, you might as well take some solace wherever you can find it. If that means choking back a tear while your favorite team’s defense posts up negative points in the week you’re facing them, well, hey, that’s how Pinchy would’ve wanted it.

* The ‘Total Protonic Reversal’ Scenario: You load your team up with your favorite team’s players, they all have awful years, and your fantasy team hits the skids. The doomsday scenario. Both facets of your football enjoyment were ruined at the same time because your Bengals-lovin’ carcass couldn’t resist drafting Ocho Cinco and counting on a bounce-back year. Now, it should be noted that the one time the Ghostbusters actually did cross the streams, it worked out for the best, but did you ever seen them try it again? Heck no. They knew they pushed their luck the first time and put an end to this strategy while the getting was good.

Granted, all of these scenarios depend greatly on the amount of offensive talent your favorite team has at its disposal. I doubt that many Vikings fans will worry about crossing the streams if they win the first overall pick in their draft and take Adrian Peterson. Given the quality of the Arizona offense, which Cards should you have in mind when it’s your turn to pick? Let’s run through your options, from worst to first, and hope that this info will help you end your fantasy season covered in marshmallow and making out with Sigourney Weaver.

11. Insert Tight End Here
Ben Patrick, Leonard Pope and Stephen Spach combined for 22 catches and 196 yards last season. So, like, two games for Tony Gonzalez, except Gonzalez would probably score a touchdown or two, whereas Patrick/Pope/Spach found the end zone a grand total of zero times in the regular season. To be fair, Patrick did connect with Kurt Warner for Arizona’s first touchdown in the Super Bowl, but he’s also going to miss the first four games of the season due to a suspension. Whomever gets the majority of snaps at tight end will spend 95 percent of their time blocking, so it’s best to just steer clear of the whole situation. Heck, the three guys I mentioned might not even end up being the starter — Dominique Byrd and Anthony Becht are also in the mix, and are just as useless from a fantasy perspective as the other three. I wouldn’t even take a Cardinals tight end as a bye week fill-in, let alone as a starter.

10. Jerheme Urban
Does Urban have a chance to supplant Steve Breaston as the No. 3 receiver? Unless Breaston’s knee (or Anquan Boldin’s hamstring) injury is worse than we’re being led to believe, probably not. But Urban could still provide a cheap source of points if you have a starting receiver on a bye week. Urban actually caught four touchdowns to Breaston’s three last season, and should the Cards continue to use four-receiver sets, Urban is your best option for vulture catches should the opposing defense be beleaguered by Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston.

9. Arizona Defense
The Cardinals’ D will be a lot more effective on the field than they will be in your fantasy league. Their philosophy of bending but not breaking (having a high-powered offense helps with this strategy) worked last year when it came to winning games, but it didn’t deliver the kinds of imposing stats that can help a defensive unit become a real fantasy factor. Arizona finished mid-to-lower end of the pack in tackles (14th), sacks (15th), interceptions (17th), and points allowed per game (28th) last year, and none of those numbers are likely to improve by leaps and bounds. If you’re in a league with individual defensive players, Adrian Wilson and Karlos Dansby are both good choices.

8. Tim Hightower
Don’t feel bad if you took Tim Hightower in your fantasy draft last week with the thought that he’d had the edge over Beanie Wells due to the latter’s ankle problems, and then watched in horror as Wells busted out two touchdowns on Friday against the Packers. Hightower will definitely still have some value even as Wells’ platoon mate, and may actually end up frustrating a lot of Wells owners by poaching short-range touchdowns. Think of the Chris Johnson-LenDale White combo in Tennessee last season, with Hightower in the White role.

7. Matt Leinart
Cardinals fans are hoping he never becomes a fantasy factor this season, but if you draft a 38-year-old quarterback, you’re obligated to pick up his backup as a handcuff just in case. Leinart’s strong preseason performance, particularly his big showing against Green Bay last Friday, should make fantasy owners breath easy about having him take up a roster space since it hints that the light bulb may have finally come on for Leinart in his fourth NFL season. Any QB with this receiving corps at his disposal should at least be able to pull his weight, and even if Leinart has only taken a step forward rather than a leap, he should have good value as a waiver-wire pickup if Warner is injured.

6. Neil Rackers
After two forgettable seasons, the Rack bounced back with a big year in 2008 that put him back in the upper tier of NFL kickers. Rackers racked up (pun intended) 119 points and completed 89.3 percent of his field goal attempts, his highest percentage since his epic 95.2 percent year in 2005. The only thing to worry about him from a fantasy standpoint is that he won’t collect the bonus points that come from long field goals — Rackers is just 5-for-20 from 50+ yards over the last three seasons, including 0-for-2 in the playoffs. Man, I’ve sure put a lot of thought into analyzing the kicker position. If you draft Rackers, you’re safe just sticking him into your lineup and forgetting about him until the bye week.

5. Beanie Wells
Given that I spoke so highly of Tim Hightower and talked up his fantasy value, is it weird that I’m ranking Wells so much higher? Not really. To refer to my earlier comparison, Wells could bring the kind of explosiveness that Johnson brought to the Titans last year. He gives away a bit of speed to Johnson but adds a bit more power, so while it’s possible that Hightower snatches some goal-line carries from Wells, Hightower will have to earn them. If you could only take one Arizona running back, Wells is clearly the preferred choice. Hightower is a good value pick, but Wells has all kinds of upside. I loved the Cardinals’ pick of Wells last April, and I think he has a chance to make a big impact in his rookie year. If nothing else, drafting Wells is guaranteed to draw at least a couple “Oh %**#(%, I was going to pick him next!” comments from your fellow fantasy coaches.

4. Steve Breaston
Teams that Breaston couldn’t immediately join and be a starting receiver for: New England, Buffalo, and maybe Green Bay, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. That’s it, and I’m on the fence about those last three. Breaston’s value takes a minor hit if his return duties are limited, but that should be more than made up for by his ever-increasing role in the offense. Perhaps the best thing about Breaston is that he’ll still be available deep into the middle or even the later rounds of most drafts. He’s a great under-the-radar pick.

3. Anquan Boldin
The hamstring is a minor red flag, and his offseason contract squabbles are a medium-sized red flag, but in all likelihood Boldin will be his usual outstanding self in 2009. If your league awards bonus points for quick recoveries from massive facial injuries, then Boldin is more valuable than Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Mojo Drew combined. You also play under a weird scoring system.

2. Kurt Warner
Warner gets the nod over Boldin for the #2 slot because quarterbacks who can put up the kind of numbers that Warner did in 2008 are few and far between, whereas receiver is a deeper category. Virtually the only hesitation that people have when drafting Warner is his age, which admittedly is a big reason for concern. You don’t see a lot of 37-year-olds do what Warner did last year, and it’s reasonable to wonder if he can keep the magic going for another season. If you’re in a league with only one starting QB, it’s worth drafting another solid starter as a backup if Warner is your first-choice quarterback. As long as Warner is healthy, he’s a great pick.

1. Larry Fitzgerald
Pretty much a no-brainer. Fitzy will be the first receiver taken in the vast majority of drafts this fall, and will likely be the only receiver taken in any first round of a standard 12-14 team league. That is, unless there’s a manager in your league who’s a hardcore Patriots fan and takes Randy Moss, or a hardcore Texans fan who takes Andre Johnson….wait a second, there’s no such things as a hardcore Texans fan, never mind.

You don’t need me to tell you how good Fitzgerald is, but a couple of statistics stand out for fantasy purposes. When Boldin was sidelined after that vicious Eric Smith hit in Week 4 last year, logic dictated that opposing teams would double-team Fitzgerald and limit his effectiveness. However, Fitzy racked up 12 catches, 131 yards and three touchdowns in the two games that Boldin missed. True, these are a step down from Fitzgerald’s usual numbers and Breaston’s emergence kept defenses honest, but even still, when a top receiver can lose his usual partner and not miss a beat, that’s pretty impressive.

Tags: fantasy, ghostbusters references